If you're expecting to turn off the air conditioning and unpack the chunky sweaters as soon as September arrives, you may want to adjust your expectations. The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s fall 2026 forecast calls for warmer and drier than normal weather throughout much of the country this fall, which means it sadly may still be a while before it's sweater, scarf and latte season.
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There are a lucky few places that are exceptions. Much of the eastern United States and the Pacific Coast are expected to experience cooler than average conditions this fall. Across the board, the temperature differences are pretty modest — often only a degree or two above or below normal. Still, in the warmer regions, it may be enough to delay the crisp chilliness that usually signals fall's arrival.
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The more consistent trend expected across the U.S. is a dry fall. Most of the country is forecast to receive less autumn rain than usual, so at least you can likely keep your umbrellas and rain boots packed away with your sweaters this year.
Here's what to expect for each region of the U.S., according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
New England should be cooler and wetter than usual. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through September and October, while rainfall should exceed typical levels
The Atlantic Corridor is expected to cool down, but not have much rain. September and October temperatures should be below normal, and precipitation is also forecast to fall short of average.
The Appalachians should experience a cooler and drier fall. September and October may run approximately 2 degrees below normal. Rainfall is also expected to remain below normal.
In the Southeast, both September and October are expected to average about 1 degree below normal. More noticeable is how dry it's expected to be; parts of the region are forecast to receive as much as 4 inches less rain than a typical autumn.
Florida should average cooler than normal during September and October. As for rainfall, northern Florida is expected to be drier than usual, while southern Florida may receive above-average precipitation.
The Lower Lakes region should get a more recognizable fall — September is forecast to be cooler than usual before returning to average in October, while rainfall is expected to be average in September before slowing down in October.
Cooler temperatures and less rainfall than average are expected in the Ohio Valley. The region could receive around 3 inches less rain than usual this fall.
The Deep South will have a warm autumn, but it may take some time to heat up — September is expected to be cooler than normal before temperatures rise above average in October.
People in the Upper Midwest shouldn't be fooled by a cool September; temperatures are expected to be warmer than average in October. September should have slightly more rain than usual before a wet October.
The northern Heartland should experience a warmer than normal fall, while the southern part of the region is expected to be slightly cooler. The whole region should have a dry start to autumn before rainfall increases in October.
Texas and Oklahoma are among the major exceptions to the dry fall most of the nation is expected to experience, with rainfall above average — potentially reaching about 4 inches above normal in northern Texas and Oklahoma. Northern Texas and Oklahoma should be cooler than normal, while southern Texas is expected to stay warmer.
Summer is sticking around in the High Plains, where both September and October are forecast to run warmer than normal, while precipitation remains below average.
The northern part of this region is expected to be cooler than normal, while southern parts stay warm. Unlike many neighboring regions, precipitation is expected to be above average overall.
The Desert Southwest can expect September to be warmer and drier than normal, while October is forecast to be slightly cooler. Rainfall is expected to be below average in Arizona, New Mexico and surrounding desert areas.
The Pacific Northwest is expected to have one of the coolest and wettest falls in the country. September and October should both run cooler than normal, and September alone may produce as much as 3 inches more rain than usual.
The Pacific Southwest should experience near-normal temperatures in September, followed by a slightly cooler October. Northern portions of the region, including Northern California, should be wetter than usual, while Southern California and surrounding areas get less rainfall than average.
Northern Alaska should be cooler than normal and may even see early snow, while southern Alaska stays warmer than usual. September and October are expected to have less precipitation than normal across the state overall.
Hawaii should experience cooler than normal temperatures across September and October, while rainfall is forecast to exceed normal levels. A mid-September tropical storm is also possible.
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